DRC Copper Capacity Recovery Restricted, LME Copper Rises to Close Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,076/mt overnight, fluctuating rangebound and initially dipping to $10,061/mt, then the center of copper prices moved up all the way, touching a high of $10,192.5/mt near the end of the session before pulling back to finally close at $10,189/mt, up 1.09%, with trading volume reaching 17,000 lots and open interest reaching 295,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2510 opened at 80,890 yuan/mt overnight, initially dipping to 80,850 yuan/mt, then copper prices rallied all the way, touching a high of 81,530 yuan/mt near the end of the session before finally closing at 81,380 yuan/mt, up 0.68%, with trading volume reaching 30,000 lots and open interest reaching 179,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) Barrick Mining Company agreed to sell its last gold mine in Canada for up to $1.1 billion. This move aims to profit from the surge in global gold prices and accelerate the mining giant's transition to copper.

(2) Recently, some small and medium-sized smelters in the DRC region cut production due to tight hydropower supply. Meanwhile, the Zambian government plans to restrict its sulphuric acid exports to the DRC. As most of the DRC's copper production uses the SX-EW process, tight acid supply poses challenges to its production recovery.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at premiums of 20-140 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 80 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 80,780-81,100 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2509 and 2510 contracts continued to show strong gains, with the SHFE copper 2509 contract mainly trading at 80,750-80,970 yuan/mt and the SHFE copper 2510 contract mainly trading at 80,720-80,940 yuan/mt. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The inter-month price spread mainly fluctuated at BACK 20-50 yuan/mt. For today, with more warrants in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions and imported copper still supplementing Shanghai, though domestic warrants and spot supplies are limited, spot premiums are expected to be offered high but trade low.
 

(2) Guangdong: On September 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at discounts of 90-70 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day but down 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,835 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,735 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt. Overall, spot trades were sluggish on the 15th, and are expected to gradually improve today.

(3) Imported copper: On September 15, the warrant price was $50-60/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L price was $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was priced at $22-30/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. The quotations referred to shipments arriving in late September and early October.

(4) Recycled copper: On September 15, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 80,980 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were 80 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 74,100-74,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,064 yuan/mt, up 119 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,295 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, sales of recycled copper rods were moderate during the day. Some recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi resumed production, mainly due to end-users demanding faster delivery after the price increase.

(5) Inventory: On September 12, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 1,325 mt to 152,625 mt; on September 15, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 5,083 mt to 30,643 mt.

Price: On the macro front, international oil prices significantly rose, with WTI crude closing up 1.09%, due to intensified attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure and increased pressure from the Trump administration on buyers of Russian crude, which supported copper prices. On the other hand, the market is highly focused on the US Fed's interest rate cut moves this week and closely watching for signals of further cuts, leading to a continued weakening of the US dollar index, also benefiting copper prices. Fundamentally, imported copper supply remains stable, but high-quality domestic copper is in short supply. With copper prices breaking 81,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchases are severely inhibited, and consumption is weak. In summary, it is expected that there will be limited upside for copper prices today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information, as any decision made by clients is unrelated to SMM.]